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Price Forecasts vs. Futures: A Reserves Evaluator’s Perspective

Guest Blog by: Tyler Schlosser, P.Eng., Director of Commodities Research, GLJ Petroleum Consultants

Using VISAGE linked to GLJ’s pricing database, we can quickly plot past Brent Crude forward curves (the purple lines) along with historical prompt month prices (the black line). This demonstrates how responsive forward curves are to current market sentiment. While forward curves do not truly represent spot price forecasts, they do tell us the prices that market participants are willing to agree to today for delivery in the future, and are often compared to industry forecasts. It can be seen that following dramatic changes in prompt month oil prices, the whole forward curve often shifts up or down in a big way. … Read more

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